The Chronicle Editorial, 11/17/2001
Record rainfall in the Chehalis River valley from mid-November to mid-February usually portends flooding.
We dodged a disaster bullet this week, thanks mostly, apparently, to an unusually dry year until now and about a week without any rain before this Wednesday's "Pineapple Express" deluge. That meant the ground was not as saturated as it could have been under normal conditions this time of year.
With the ground soaking up more of the heavy rains, and no snow to melt in the Willapa Hills, that meant less runoff into the Chehalis River and spared the Twin Cities from flooding. Same story for the Chehalis tributaries - the Skookumchuck and Newaukum rivers and associated creeks.
The narrow escape from flooding should be a big-time wake up call to those folks who have the ability and authority to influence flood control measures in the Chehalis basin. With the dillydallying, dawdling and propensity to study more before implementing effective flood abatement measures, we risk enduring the dire economic consequences to our area of another devastating flood.
Ordinarily, the 3.72 inches of rain recorded at the Centralia Fire Department Wednesday, with an additional 0.59 of an inch Thursday, along with the 6.60 inches measured by Chronicle observer Ted Karniss in the upper Chehalis watershed at Pe Ell those two days, would have brought the river to at least flood stage in the Twin Cities and potentially much higher.
Wednesday's rainfall at Centralia smashed the previous record for a Nov. 14 of 1.38 inches in 1942. More significantly, it was also easily the second heaviest 24-hour rainfall in November in records going back 75 years. The record is 3.96 inches on Nov. 24, 1990. Until this week, the next closest record was 3.07 inches on Nov. 13, 1937.
In fact, for weather trivia types, Wednesday's 3.72 inches ranked fourth highest for 24-hour rain at Centralia in 75 years. It was exceeded only by the 4.13 inches on Jan. 9, 1990 (followed by record flooding on the Chehalis), 3.95 inches on Dec. 9, 1933 (a month with record flooding), and the November record of 3.96 inches in 1990. It was only the seventh day in more than seven decades that rainfall has exceeded 3 inches.
The February 1996 flooding on the Chehalis, perhaps the worst ever recorded, was preceded by 1.68 inches on the 7th at Centralia and 3.34 inches on the 8th, for a total of 5.02 inches. That wasn't a lot higher than this week's two-day total of 4.31 inches on Wednesday and Thursday. Yet this time the Chehalis didn't even reach flood stage.
Clearly, we narrowly averted another disastrous flood. Our winter rainy season is just beginning and in contrast to last year, it looks to be much wetter. We are vulnerable to more record rainfall and serious flooding for another months. Mother Nature may be out to up for last winter's drought.
Getting on with meaningful flood reduction measures on the Chehalis is long overdue.
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