The Chronicle, 10/31/2002
Local officials shouldn't go to the bank on predictions of less chance of flooding during the upcoming late fall and winter wet season in the Twin Cities and elsewhere in Lewis County.
National Weather Service meteorologists addressed flooding prospects Monday in Chehalis for a large group of local officials, including city leaders and law enforcement personnel. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service believe odds are the Northwest will have a drier and warmer-than-normal winter because of the return of the El Ni¤o phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.
But that's a general outlook. Remember, the Northwest covers a lot of territory. The federal meteorologists get only a little more specific and hedge their bets.
"You can get some windstorms during El Ni¤o, especially in the southern half of Oregon," Wayne Higgins, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., said earlier this month. But he qualified that by saying some big wind and rain storms could affect the entire Northwest coast, which includes us.
And this: "Our feeling is that there will be slightly more precipitation along the coast," Higgins said.
The meteorologists speaking in Chehalis noted that the devastating floods from the Chehalis River in 1990 and 1996 didn't occur when the El Ni¤o phenomenon was present. However, it should be noted that our area had much wetter than normal years extending beyond 1996 in which El Ni¤o was present.
All of which is to say that just because this is an El Ni¤o year doesn't mean we won't get a bunch of rain and not have flooding, although the odds may be a little less because the worst floods didn't occur with El Ni¤o.
The best appraisal we've heard and which local officials probably should give most credence to came from Christopher Hill, meteorologist in charge of the Weather Service's Seattle forecasting office.
"The impact of a moderate El Ni¤o on winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest is not straightforward," he said. "There is a slight tendency (with El Ni¤o) for precipitation to average a little below normal. But that does not mean we won't see significant storms with heavy precipitation and flooding."
In other words, stay alert, expect anything and be prepared as best as possible. Adequate flood control for the Twin Cities area is still a long ways off.
PLANNING PROGRESS: Meanwhile, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is continuing planning - note that's planning, not studies on a project it is leading to protect the Twin Cities from Chehalis River flooding. In part because of leadership by our county Commissioners, a flood protection project for the area is further along than it has ever been.
However, the federal government still needs to help with the $80 million to $100 million estimated cost of the project - building new levies in the Twin Cities and upgrading the Skookumchuck Dam to hold back floodwaters.
The levee plan makes huge sense as a very practical and effective way to control Twin Cities flooding and should have been put in place years ago. For example, the plan includes installation of flood gates on China, Salzer and Dillenbaugh creeks that would be closed when the Chehalis River is flooding to prevent those floodwaters from backing up into the cities the creeks flow through or near.
This would protect as much of the Twin Cities area as possible and minimize any resultant adjacent and downstream flooding.
WARM WINTER? After four months of near-drought weather in which rainfall has been far below average in the Twin Cities, let's hope that trend doesn't continue through the winter, any El-Nino-based suppositions aside.
We don't need another winter like we had in 2000-2001, which resulted in low snowpacks, low reservoirs and added to power shortages.
As to predictions for a warmer than normal winter because of El Ni¤o, don't count on that either. Our late October cold wave this week, with temperatures dropping into the teens in some of our Lewis County area and setting records for the month, may be a portent for later.
If El Ni¤o in fact produces drier conditions, that means more clear nights and temperatures likely averaging below normal, with lots of chilly, fog-shrouded days in the valleys. Warmer than normal winter weather is usually associated with clouds and rain.
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