As a part of our continuing effort to assure that interested parties
in the region are informed about ongoing ecological risk analysis, we
are inviting you to attend the following workshops sponsored by
National Marine Fisheries Service.
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DATES:
July 22-23, 1999
LOCATION:
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Auditorium
2725 Montlake Boulevard East
Seattle, Washington 98112-2097
FURTHER INFORMATION: Darlene Blythe (206) 860-3200
The NW Fisheries Science Center is convening two workshops to
introduce NMFS' matrix modeling approach to analyzing risks to Pacific
salmonids. The model analyzes the impacts to salmon of human impacts
(the "Four Hs") and environmental variability. NMFS scientists are
coordinating with the Multi-Species Framework Ecological Work Group as
the work on the Ecological Diagnosis and Treatment method and the
development of the NMFS matrix model progresses.
Policy Workshop - Please ask your policy staff to hold August 31,
1999, for a day-long introduction to NMFS' science approach. This
will be an opportunity to hear a description of how the model works
and see preliminary modeling results.
Science Workshop - Please ask your technical staff to attend a
technical workshop on July 22-23,1999. Your technical staff will have
an early opportunity to receive an introduction to NMFS' scientific
work-in-progress and provide their input, their ideas and suggestions
for improvements.
There will be a rigorous science discussion and NMFS will welcome the
criticisms of your technical staff to the approach and any pointers
they may have to data or analyses that could improve NMFS' efforts.
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AGENDA
Thursday:
1:00 PM
Introductory remarks and purpose of the workshop
1:20 PM
Overview of analytical philosophy and approach
1:40 PM
The matrix framework and its possible extensions
2:20 PM
Sensitivity analyses and extinction modeling
3:00 PM
BREAK
3:30 PM
Analyses connecting habitat data to salmon population performance
4:00 PM
Analyses and models connecting hatchery operations to wild populations
4:30 PM
Some sample numerical experiments putting the four H's together
--harvest, hatchery, habitat and hydro manipulations combined.
5:00 PM
What the approach cannot do in the short term, and longer range goals?
ADJOURN AT 5:30 PM - group dinner at 7:30 PM
Friday:
8:00 - 9:30 AM
How do we estimate parameters for the models, and deal with the
uncertainty of these estimations?
9:45 - 10:15 AM
Modeling Extinction
10:30 - noon
Connecting habitat data to population data and moving between spatial
scales
LUNCH
1:00 - 2:30 PM
Hatchery Analyses
2:30 - 3:15 PM
What should be the outputs of models?
3:15 PM
What next?
3:30 PM
ADJOURN
With the time-pressure of having to provide decision support within
months, and an absence of coordinated data sets, NMFS is attempting to
develop streamlined models that can guide recovery efforts. The goal
is to produce a modeling framework that accommodates numerous
different risk factors simultaneously, and that is both subject to
scientific scrutiny and transparent to the public. The models and
analyses being developed should be viewed as science-based
decision-support systems (not prescriptions for what should be done --
that is NOT the role of science). In order to take advantage of
regional and national expertise in the area of salmon population
ecology and conservation biology, NMFS has organized a workshop in
which data and models aimed at being the first steps towards
science-based decision support are discussed.
Th first half-day will comprise concise formal presentations of models
and analyses, with time for questions regarding the clarity of the
presentations, but no real in-depth discussion. After that first
half-day, we encourage participants to go out to dinner together
(arrangements will be made providing for this opportunity) and to
discuss and digest the presented material over night.
Friday will be spent on in-depth discussions of five core topics as
shown in the agenda. In addition, there will be side discussions
encouraged for those who really want to delve into technical details
by working at computer terminals, or examining particular data sets.
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